A Political Proxy War in Wisconsin

Democrats are optimistic that their Elon playbook is a winner.

Wisconsinites just can’t catch a break. Months after being inundated with more than $400 million in political advertising, Badger State residents have been subjected to another $100 million worth of attack ads and stump speech snippets. Though I’d bet locals are sick of political interruptions to their March Madness binge, the spring spending wave is not without good reason: tomorrow’s judicial election will determine the partisan balance of the state supreme court.

After 30 years on the court, longtime liberal justice Ann Walsh Bradley is retiring. Her departure leaves an even ideological split—three liberals, three conservatives. With abortion, redistricting, and election cases looming, Tuesday’s winner will have immense sway over the future of one of the country’s premier swing states.

If this feels like electoral déjà vu, you’re not imagining things: the April 2023 contest between Janet Protasiewicz and Daniel Kelly also determined control of the court. In a race that attracted national headlines and set fundraising records, Protasiewicz soundly defeated Kelly and handed liberals a judicial majority for the first time in fifteen years. The impact of the flip was felt quickly: the four liberal justices struck down a Republican gerrymander of the state legislature and ordered new maps. As a result, Democrats now have a fighting chance to control state government for the first time since 2010.

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This year, liberals have coalesced around Susan Crawford, a Dane County judge, while conservatives are backing Brad Schimel, a Waukesha County judge and the former Wisconsin attorney general. Both candidates have sought to nationalize the race. Schimel, a longtime Trump fan, is leaning heavily into his support for the president—support that was reciprocated with a late March endorsement. Though the president has not appeared in person, he did call into Schimel’s town hall late last week, telling attendees that “it’s really more than local, the whole country is watching.” Trump allies Donald Jr. and Charlie Kirk have traveled to Wisconsin to campaign for Schimel.

Crawford, meanwhile, is centering her attacks on Democrats’ favorite target these days: Elon Musk. The tech billionaire has dumped millions into the race through various super PACs—a boon to Schimel’s coffers, but also an easy attack line for Crawford. Wisconsin Democrats have been airing ads tying Schimel to Musk and in their March debate, Crawford labeled her opponent “Elon Schimel.”

Democratic voters have taken the hint: Crawford’s supporters have taken to waving “For Sale” signs with Schimel’s name sharpied underneath. Musk’s last minute (and since deleted) promise to give a million dollars to a pair of Schimel voters only added fuel to the fire.

In some respects, Crawford’s campaign is the first statewide test of a Musk-centered strategy that Democrats will almost certainly deploy across the country come 2026. Should Crawford pull out a victory, national Democrats will take it as a sign that the Musk playbook is working. There’s growing evidence that Crawford’s efforts could pay off. A Marquette Law poll of registered voters in Wisconsin found that Musk is viewed favorably by 41 percent and unfavorably by 53 percent—a net rating well below Trump’s. Furthermore, the Pennsylvania Democrat who flipped a Trump +15 state Senate seat last week employed similar tactics, hammering away at Musk and DOGE’s indiscriminate cuts.

Though millions in last-minute advertising have likely shifted the race somewhat, Marquette’s late February survey is still a high-quality pulse check. Neither Crawford nor Schimel were particularly well known, though Schimel’s stint as attorney general certainly gave him a leg up in the name recognition race. Among registered voters, 29 percent have a favorable opinion of Schimel and 32 percent an unfavorable one. Crawford, meanwhile, clocked in at 19 percent favorable and 23 percent unfavorable.

All registered voters, however, is not the most useful sample for a low-turnout election. Thankfully Marquette split their sample into “certain to vote & very enthusiastic” and “less involved” to approximate the off-year electorate. While Crawford is eight points underwater with “less involved” voters, she has a net positive rating with the high-propensity, high-enthusiasm crowd. Schimel receives a more muted bump when the sample narrows—which suggests a low-turnout affair would boost liberals.

The name of the game for Schimel, then, is turning out just enough low-propensity Trump voters. Crawford’s base in Dane County will definitely vote: some Madison precincts broke 80 percent turnout in the 2023 court race even as statewide turnout hovered around 50 percent. Schimel is well aware of this potential turnout gap—and it’s partly why he spent much of March angling for a Trump visit. An endorsement, he told supporters at the Milwaukee rotary club, “could help me get my message out to voters who don’t vote in every election.”

Two regions are worth paying particular attention to as the votes roll in tomorrow night: the Driftless Area and the ever-relevant “WOW” counties. Curving along the western border of Wisconsin, the Driftless Area was once a Democratic stronghold. As recently as 2012, Barack Obama carried the region by 15 points.

In more recent years, however, these rural voters have fled to the GOP—except, seemingly, in off-year elections. Though Biden and Harris both lost the Driftless Area in their respective campaigns, Janet Protasiewicz was actually able to match Obama’s margins in 2023. The blue swings were the largest in the state. If Crawford can come close to matching Protasiewicz's Driftless numbers, she’s headed for a win.

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Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington counties are headed in the opposite direction. Long a bastion of the Wisconsin GOP, this suburban trio has lurched leftwards in the Trump era. Schimel must aim to reverse the slide here if he wants to win statewide. A Waukesha native himself, he can hope for a local boost.

Making a firm prediction on such limited data is a tall task. Conservatives have Musk’s millions, but liberals hold the early-vote advantage. Trump’s approval rating has slumped, but voters aren’t exactly pining for Democrats yet either. Plus there’s the wrinkle that the race is technically nonpartisan: voters won’t see an R or D next to the candidates’ names. As weary Wisconsinites head to the polls tomorrow, this race is anyone’s game—though Democrats’ edge with high-propensity voters might just push Crawford over the edge.