A Moment of Clarity
Frank advice from a successful Clark County, WA, Democrat on how to win over more center-right voters.
The clearest political thinking for Democrats often occurs in the moments after an election. Months or years from now, it will be easy to indulge in wishful thinking about what went right or wrong in 2024. Immediately after the election, the party is forced to face the most important and difficult facts about politics.
Here’s one of those inescapable realities. If you are running for president in a center-right country, or running for any office in a swing district, then you need to win a large number of votes from center-right Americans who normally wouldn’t vote for a Democrat.
These center-right voters back political parties and candidates who agree with them, not the other way around. They don’t ask themselves, “Do I agree with this candidate?” They ask, “Does this candidate agree with me?”
All the other door-knocking, advertising, and campaign rallies that make up an election are secondary. If Democrats like those in my center-right county in Washington State don’t first show voters that we agree with them, we lose.
Fortunately, this is really an easy fix and doesn’t cost anything.
It starts by understanding that America is a center-right country in traditional ideological terms. The swing districts that Democrats need to pick up each election cycle to either capture or hold legislative majorities are uniformly center-right. Next, Democrats must accept that they cannot win center-right districts (or win over a center-right nation) by running an exclusively liberal campaign. And they can’t govern if they don’t win legislative and executive power.
The good news? It’s quite possible for Democrats to do this. They’ve done it many times, including in some center-right swing districts this cycle. The harder truth is that there are only two proven ways for future Democratic candidates to win in center-right districts:
Be a once-in-a-generation political talent like Barack Obama, who can run as a pragmatic progressive while also sounding notes of unity. “There's not a liberal America and a conservative America. There's the United States of America.” If you are an Obama-level candidate, you can pull it off. However, if you are merely a good person and a solid candidate, but not the Barack Obama of politics, you cannot win this way. If Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris couldn’t do it, neither can you. Don’t fool yourself into losing.
Emphasize the issues where you agree with the center-right. Run as a person who agrees with a lot of what the center-right voters want economically and socially, and who also happens to be a Democrat. Remember, you need center-right voters to win, and these voters are asking themselves if you agree with them on issues ranging from jobs and inflation to taxes and crime. Show them you share these same values and positions.
This political realism should be carried out with integrity. For example, if you are running in a center-right swing district, 90 percent of your words should be some combination of the “Great Eight”:
“I want good jobs for working people and affordable lives for working families.”
“I want to keep your taxes low and keep government out of your way.”
“I stand for fiscal discipline and balanced budgets.”
“You don’t have to have a college degree to be smart, and leaders need to respect the people who do the hard work in this town.”
“Rural Americans need to be protected, respected, and empowered to maintain the character of their communities.”
“I support the police, I love our military, and we need law and order to have a civilized society.”
“We must have secure borders.”
“I care deeply about personal morals and values, and I try to live my life the best I can.”
Pick any or all of these that you truly believe—and say them authentically and often. Show center-right people you are aligned with them on plenty of things even though your party label is “Democrat.”
You can still be a progressive-leaning Democrat and vote for pragmatic progressive legislation. You can still support strong progressive political reforms. The voters in swing districts will know you’re a Democrat, and they will know you stand for Democratic policies. They expect you to be a Democrat. They just want you to be one of those Democrats who agrees with the center-right on a lot of things. Be that kind of Democrat, and you’ll win, and the party will have the majorities necessary to advance progressive reforms. In contrast, be an out-of-the-mainstream progressive in a swing district, and you’ll lose, and Democrats will have one less seat in the legislature.
What about all those Democrats running in deep blue districts? If you are running in a safe Democratic district that votes for Democratic presidents all the time, please go ahead and do whatever you want in your campaign. But if you want to be part of a Democratic majority that gets to make the laws, then you need to help those candidates in frontline districts win their elections by offering your support and, if necessary, by getting out of the way to let them make their case directly to more conservative voters with a national party that backs their efforts.
The Democratic Party is like an unruly orchestra, where candidates from across the country play different instruments that are not always in tune or synchronized. It is the job of both safe-Democrats and swing-district candidates to advance key party priorities for America that help all working people and stand up for basic civil liberties and civil rights. But a swing-district candidate has the extra burden of winning—time and again—in highly competitive environments, and this means really showing center-right voters that they are valued and understood.
Tim Probst is a former state legislator and chair of the Clark County Democrats. Clark County, WA, is a traditionally conservative county that has elected a Democratic congresswoman, flipped a state senate seat that was held by Republicans since the 1980’s, flipped the county council from conservative to progressive, and turned in the highest results for a Democratic governor in 20 years.
The problem is that the Democratic party at the national level doesn't stand for any of those principles because is dominated by urban interests in both the activist and donor categories. People know this and assume this is just new packaging for the same old product. To be fair, establishment Republicans only support 3 of the 8. MAGA hits 6 of the 8. I don't know Mr. Probst so I have to assume he is on board with all 8 but he is in the wrong party. He should be helping MAGA defeat the establishment Republicans and the Left and affirm the remaining 2 principles. Then maybe we could have sane politics.
And don't utter meaningless inanities about how your "values have not changed" while carefully concealing from voters what those values are, and your record that upholds them.
In short, don't pretend to be somebody you provably are not. Remember, Trump wins on authenticity.