A Midwestern Battle for the DNC

Who will lead Democrats out of the woods?

Chairing the DNC is considered one of the worst jobs in politics—particularly when Democrats do not control the White House. “The DNC Chairman Knows No One Is Happy. Neither Is He,” declared a 2019 New York Times headline about then-chair Tom Perez. It is a position where success earns little praise, but failure draws intense criticism (recall the Debbie Wasserman Schultz disaster during the bitter 2016 primary). As Democrats rebuild and regroup, Saturday’s DNC chair election is an early look at the direction of the party in 2025 and beyond.

The depressing headlines did not stop a pair of high-profile state party leaders from jumping into the race. Ken Martin of Minnesota and Ben Wikler of Wisconsin have emerged as frontrunners in what has quickly become a heated contest. Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley and Faiz Shakir, who managed Bernie’s 2020 campaign, round out the contenders. Though O’Malley has earned the support of some Congressional Black Caucus members and Shakir will peel off a few progressive votes, Wikler and Martin are operating like it’s a two-man race.

As expected, both have made big promises: reinvest in state party infrastructure, renew outreach to working-class Americans, improve communication with low-information voters. All worthy goals. But which candidate has a better electoral track record? Let’s take a look.

One of the longest tenured state chairs in the country, Martin took over the Minnesota DFL in 2011—just after 2010’s red wave handed the party several crushing defeats and a mountain of campaign debt. In the fourteen years since, Martin has largely rebuilt the party. Between 2011 and 2021, Minnesota Democrats raised $130 million to Republicans’ $45 million. Democrats have not lost any statewide contest under Martin’s leadership (despite Hillary Clinton’s close call in 2016 and Keith Ellison’s in 2022).

Of course, Democrats winning in Minnesota is the expected outcome. Not since Richard Nixon has a Republican presidential candidate carried Minnesota. Republicans—including Trump—have invested resources into the state, but only halfheartedly. Like North Carolina for Democrats, Minnesota has often been the state just out of reach for Republicans. So, while Martin certainly deserves some credit, it’s unclear how much his decision making directly contributed to the last decade of Democratic success.

Wikler’s Wisconsin, meanwhile, is the ultimate battleground. Perennially purple, the Badger State sees hundreds of millions in spending each election cycle—both a blessing and a curse for Wikler’s candidacy. He has proven he can effectively coordinate with national campaigns and high-profile federal races, but has less experience raising money in non-battleground states. Though both are prolific fundraisers, Martin, arguably, has had to fight harder to raise cash.

The crown jewel in Wikler’s DNC pitch is undoubtedly Democrats’ triumph in the April 2023 state Supreme Court race that tilted the court’s partisan balance towards liberals. In large part due to Wikler’s efforts, Wisconsin Democrats successfully nationalized the race and a normally dreary judicial race became the number one political story in the country. The impact of the victory was felt in 2024: the new liberal majority struck down Wisconsin’s gerrymander, allowing Democrats to pick up 10 state assembly seats and 4 state senate seats.

Ultimately, however, both Martin and Wikler can point to a laundry list of accomplishments. The differing partisanship of the two states limits the direct comparisons we can make. But by sampling counties with low college attainment, we get a standardized look at how the frontrunners have done with working-class voters. The table below compares Wisconsin and Minnesota counties where less than 30 percent of the population has a bachelor’s degree. I’ve focused on row offices in midterm years to better gauge the party chair impact.

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The comparative margins immediately stand out: Minnesota’s white working-class counties are dramatically more Republican than Wisconsin’s. In 2024, Harris lost Minnesota counties with less than 30 percent degree attainment by 31 points, but still won the state by 4.2. In Wisconsin, she lost low-college counties by a much smaller 16.7 points, but lost statewide. Minnesota Democrats are buoyed by the Twin Cities and their suburbs far more than Wisconsin Democrats are by Milwaukee and Madison. Put another way, Wisconsin Democrats need many, many more white working-class votes to pull out a statewide win.

These differences, of course, emerged well before Martin and Wikler ascended to their current positions. Rural Wisconsin—particularly western Wisconsin’s Driftless Area—has long been more favorable territory for Democrats (occupation, religion, and ancestry all contribute to the divide).

But if we compare margin shifts, we see how well each state party has done with the working-class voters fleeing the Democratic Party. Across the statewide row offices, the most working-class counties in Minnesota shifted an average of 8.9 points towards Republicans between 2018 and 2022. In Wisconsin, the average shift was just 4.9 points. In purely empirical terms, it seems Wikler has done a better job building the working-class support necessary to power Democratic wins nationwide.

Regardless of who emerges victorious Saturday, the new chair will take charge of a demoralized party. The Resistance™ that powered Democrats through Trump’s first term has dissipated. Many rank-and-file Democrats, even those who enthusiastically supported Harris, are wondering where the party goes from here—not to mention the millions of voters who flipped to Trump.

Reenergizing a party still nursing its wounds from a devastating defeat is an incredibly tough assignment. And then there’s the small matter of organizing and running the crucial 2028 primary. Let’s hope the next chair is up to the task.