A Golden Opportunity for Republicans in California

The state’s rightward shift created new battleground districts.

Despite being home turf for Kamala Harris, California lurched decisively to the right this year. After Joe Biden’s 29-point win four years ago, Harris carried the Golden State by just 20. The 9-point swing is good for the fourth largest statewide shift towards Trump, just behind Florida, New York, and New Jersey.

Though the red wave did not crest nearly high enough to topple any statewide Democrats, local elections and ballot measures tell the story of a pronounced rejection of the progressive policies that have dominated California for a decade.

San Francisco ousted its incumbent mayor in favor of Daniel Lurie, a moderate Democrat who ran a tough-on-crime campaign. Across the Bay, Alameda County residents recalled their progressive District Attorney. In Los Angeles, independent Nathan Hochman defeated George Gascón, a longtime progressive prosecutor. Statewide, voters rejected a minimum wage increase while overwhelmingly backing Proposition 36, which increases penalties for theft- and drug-related offenses.

The bright spot for California Democrats was flipping a trio of House districts. GOP Reps. Michelle Steel, Mike Garcia, and John Duarte—all prime targets for the DCCC—lost to their Democratic challengers. Though other Biden-district Republicans survived, make no mistake: 2024 was undoubtedly a strong cycle for House Democrats in California.

Lurking under the surface, however, are a cluster of blue districts that swung dramatically to the right. While not quite red enough this year, these “safe” seats suddenly look pretty darn competitive. And if Democrats don’t shore up support with Hispanic and non-college voters soon, these districts present a real opportunity for Republicans in the next few cycles. Let’s take a look at these emerging battlegrounds.

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First up, a trio of double-digit Biden districts that flipped to Trump this year. Democrats Josh Harder and Adam Gray (who beat Duarte) suddenly find themselves in hostile territory. While in 2020 a dramatic underperformance would have still resulted in a win, each will now need to continue overperforming the presidential baseline if they hope to keep their seats. Both Harder and Gray should be prime targets for the GOP next cycle. Over in the San Joaquin Valley, meanwhile, Republican David Valadao is suddenly sitting pretty: his majority-Hispanic district swung from Biden +13 to Trump +6. Democrats will be hard-pressed to defeat him in future cycles.

More worrying for Democrats, however, are the four seats rated as “Solid Democrat” by the Cook Political Report that ended up going for Harris by single digits. A fifth, CA-35, went for Harris by 10.3 points.

Reps. Jim Costa and Raul Ruiz represent districts that voted for Biden in 2020 by 20 and 15 points, respectively. Just four years later, their districts voted for the Democratic ticket by less than 4 points. Unsurprisingly, both districts are 60+ percent Hispanic and have very low college attainment—a demographic profile driving the Democratic collapse.

Reps. Pete Aguilar, Norma Torres, and Mark Takano each hold seats that went for Obama by 25+ points, Hillary Clinton by 25+ points, and Joe Biden by 25+ points—some of the most consistently blue districts in the country. No longer. All three swung 15+ points towards Trump in 2024. Just as with Costa and Ruiz, this trio represents districts that are majority Hispanic and primarily working class.

These Democrats might find refuge in their own performances, rather than the top of the ticket. Each out performed Harris to some degree—and several did so by a considerable margin. So even if national Democrats are unpopular, they might argue, perhaps our seats are still safe. They are right—for now. Any time an area undergoes a substantial political realignment, there is almost always “downballot lag.” Recall Democrats winning state legislative contests in the Deep South well after the region was ruby-red at the presidential level—or suburban areas that are now solidly blue, but still vote for the GOP in local races.

By comparing past House and presidential margins, we can get a sense of how much the 2024 overperformances were candidate quality compared to downballot lag. The chart below shows that four of the five members had their strongest overperformance in 2024. With Raul Ruiz a notable exception, these margins suggest that Costa, Aguilar, and Takano were the beneficiaries of downballot lag in November.

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Jim Costa—who won by just 5 points this year—is in the toughest spot. Not only did he barely outrun Harris, Costa has a history of trailing the top of the ticket. If his district trends just a bit further right, he is in deep trouble—as is Takano and potentially Aguilar.

If past is prologue, Democrats are nevertheless favorites to win back the House in 2026. Trump’s honeymoon will fade and, just as happened to his predecessor, he’ll likely grow unpopular. Simply letting “Trump be Trump” may be enough to hand Hakeem Jeffries the speakership in a couple years. Democrats’ growing advantage with high-propensity voters should also pay dividends in a midterm cycle.

So while these California representatives are probably safe for another cycle, their electoral standing could quickly grow precarious in the next presidential contest—especially as downballot lag fades and Trump voters grow more comfortable voting for other GOP candidates. Long accustomed to safe seats, these five members might face a rude awakening in the next GOP-leaning cycle.

If California Democrats don’t learn from 2024 and adjust accordingly, they risk damaging the party’s chances at reclaiming the House. And with the majority teetering on a knife’s edge, Democrats can’t afford another cluster of once-safe seats to emerge as national battlegrounds.