A Biden Bump after Trump's Conviction?
A remarkable stability has defined the 2024 election. On Super Tuesday, Donald Trump led Joe Biden by 2.2 points in the 538/ABC News national polling average. On April 1, by 2.1 points. On May 30, the day of his felony conviction, he led by 1.7 points. During those nearly three months, Nikki Haley dropped out, multi-million dollar ad buys went live, and both candidates held dozens of campaign events. The polls hardly budged. Trump’s narrow lead appeared incredibly resilient.
Today, however, as we approach one month since the conviction, Biden now leads Trump in 538’s average. It is the first time the incumbent has led in their average this year. While Trump maintains an advantage in most battlegrounds, Biden has also gained some ground.
But before diving into the numbers, an important caveat on polling aggregators. 538’s state averages account for the national environment, so Trump’s dip nationally has probably pushed some of his state-level slip as well. Other aggregators, like DDHQ or The Economist, show a more modest Biden gain nationally—or none at all—and therefore a smaller swing-state bump.
Given how static polling was all spring, a post-conviction shift was far from guaranteed. But there is now building evidence that Trump’s conviction has indeed cost him in the polls. In addition to 538’s averages, both The New York Times and Echelon found two-point Biden gains in their post-conviction voter recontact surveys.
So who, then, is moving towards Biden post-conviction? There are several possible explanations for who has warmed to the incumbent. The Times found the shift was “especially pronounced among young, nonwhite, and disengaged Democratic-leaning voters.” Still a group not particularly fond of Biden, Trump’s conviction appears to have jarred some back into the Democratic camp. The latest Fox News poll adds to the argument that some disillusioned Biden 2020 voters have started to come home.
In both the two-way and five-way horse race questions, Biden has improved his standing among those who voted for him four years ago. In Fox polls from February to May with RFK Jr. included, Biden’s share of his 2020 voters hovered in the high 70s. In June, he hit 86 percent. In a head-to-head with Trump, Biden wins the vote of 95 percent of Democrats—his highest share this year.
Of course, a point or two is hardly a momentous shift—particularly when driven by co-partisans coming back into the fold. Most national polls still show a race well within the margin of error, no matter who leads. Republicans will hope the president’s recent rebound is a temporary symptom of response bias, rather than an enduring shift in the electorate. Team Biden will try for the opposite: keeping Trump’s conviction front of mind for voters across the country.
The recent shift is better thought of as an alignment of pundits and polls. Most analysts have long predicted a tight election decided by a handful of voters in a handful of states. The polls are starting to reflect that too.
Political persecution, lawfare, and show trials are effective means for authoritarians to maintain power. I am the son of a legal Venezuelan immigrant. He and his entire family left their home country decades ago when these tactics began taking hold. I've heard my father cry twice in my life. Once was when i disappointed him as a rebellious teenager. The second was the day after the Trump conviction. Not because of Trump...but because of what that action portends for America. Way to go Democrats...this is what you've become. You opened a door that cannot be easily closed. And for what? Because your echo chamber has convinced you that Donald Trump is a 'threat to democracy'? Really?
Before you answer that question, just remember who it was that kept the country shut down and forced vaccinations on citizens. Remember who it is that continues to flout Supreme Court rulings and act by executive fiat to buy votes on the backs of hard working Americans. Remember who it is that refused to enforce existing immigration laws passed by a representative government to keep our borders secure. Remember who it is that has weaponized technology companies to crush dissenting viewpoints. Remember who it is that broke 250 years of precedent and prosecuted his political enemies. Remember who it is that leads a DOJ that labels supporters of the opposition party as potential domestic terrorists, along with 'religious' people. I could go on and on.
Despite his flaws, Donald Trump didn't do ANY of the above. Your guy did.
Once again, the intelligence agencies and DOJ are interfering with another American election. How is it exactly that you think this ends? I'm praying for all level-headed Democrats to wake up and reject these tactics before it's too late, if it's not already. Darn it, I mentioned I pray. Now I'm on a list.