40 Policies That Will Define the 2024 Election

Results of a comprehensive new poll of 4,038 registered voters from The Liberal Patriot and Blueprint conducted by YouGov.

The Liberal Patriot and Blueprint recently collaborated on a comprehensive national election survey to explore the major issues shaping the 2024 presidential election and to assess how voters respond to 40 different policy ideas either proposed or enacted by Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

The online poll of 4,038 registered voters was conducted by YouGov from March 29 to April 5, 2024. Crosstabs of the data are available here and a table with all 40 policies is listed below. David Weigel featured the poll yesterday in Semafor’s Americana newsletter on politics and elections.

TLP plans to release several posts on this fascinating survey over the next few weeks.

Major findings overall include:

The race for president is now tied. In the head-to-head matchup for president, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are currently tied at 44 percent each in this poll, with three percent planning to vote for another candidate, six percent undecided, and two percent saying they would not vote.

In a separate three-way test between Biden, Trump, and independent candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Biden receives 43 percent of the vote, Trump 42 percent, and Kennedy six percent with two percent choosing another candidate, six percent unsure, and one percent planning not to vote.

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Looking at how the head-to-head vote breaks out among important demographic groups:

• Biden leads 57 percent to 33 percent among 18–29-year-old voters while Trump leads 53 to 39 percent among the oldest voters, age 65+.

• Trump currently leads among all white voters (50 percent to 40 percent) and Biden leads among black voters (71 percent to 15 percent) and Hispanic voters (47 percent to 35 percent).

• 86 percent of self-identified Democrats back Biden and 88 percent of Republicans support Trump.

• Strict independent voters (those not leaning to one party or the other) break for Biden over Trump by a 29 percent to 26 percent margin, with 13 percent choosing someone else and nearly one in five still undecided.

• Biden leads Trump among moderate voters by a 47 percent to 36 percent margin.

• Trump leads Biden 49 percent to 40 percent among non-college educated voters while Biden leads Trump 51 percent to 38 percent among college educated voters.

In terms of personal evaluations, 45 percent of voters say they approve of the job that Joe Biden is currently doing as president with 54 percent disapproving. Retrospective approval of Donald Trump is more favorable with 51 percent of voters saying they approve of the job Trump did as president compared to 47 percent who disapprove.

Voters also trust Trump more than Biden on eight of ten dimensions of presidential leadership (“The Patriot Index”), with Biden trusted more on “being culturally moderate and not extreme” and “protecting people’s individual rights.”

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Likewise, the former president holds a slight advantage over the current one in voter perceptions of economic stewardship: 50 percent of voters say Trump did a better job managing the economy when he was president versus 41 percent who feel Biden has done a better job on the economy so far in his presidency.

Inflation, the economy, and immigration top the list of issues defining the 2024 election. In a test of the most important issues facing the country this election cycle, voters are equally concerned about “immigration and border security”—selected as one of three top issues by 38 percent of voters—and “inflation” chosen by 37 percent.

“Jobs and the economy” comes in third on the list at 25 percent, followed by “crime and public safety” and “the budget, taxes, and the federal deficit” tied at 18 percent, and “reproductive rights and abortion” and “climate change and the environment” tied at 16 percent.

Only 41 percent of voters overall believe that the national economy is doing well these days, but just over half (52 percent) say their own personal finances are doing well.

Notably, a full 60 percent of voters believe that “inflation is still a very serious problem that is not improving” compared to 31 percent who feel “inflation is a serious problem, but it is starting to get better” and only eight percent who don’t see inflation as a serious problem.

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In a separate test of how much people are spending on major household goods and services today versus one year ago (above), more than four in ten voters report they are spending much more on “milk, eggs, and dairy products” (42 percent), “gasoline” (41 percent), and meat or fish (36 percent). Around one third of voters say they are spending much more on things like “heating and cooling,” “water and electricity,” and “going out to eat.”

Voters express clear preferences for policies that check corporate excesses, improve their personal health, protect Medicare and Social Security, and address public safety and the border crisis. As seen in the chart below, voters respond in very different ways to 40 different policy ideas that have been proposed or enacted by Biden or Trump and their campaigns.

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At the top of the list of policy ideas, with net support (total support minus total oppose) ranging from 72 to 76 percent are the following ideas:

• “Ban businesses from charging consumers hidden or misleading fees for live event tickets, hotels, apartment rentals, and other services.” (+76 net support)

• “Increase the number of prescription drugs that Medicare can negotiate the price of for seniors.” (+75 percent net support)

• “Require pharmaceutical companies to charge American consumers the lowest price they charge consumers in foreign countries.” (+75 percent net support)

• “Cap the cost of insulin at $35 a month for every American who needs it.” (+74 percent net support)

• “Protect Medicare and Social Security from funding cuts or increases in the age of eligibility.” (+72 percent net support)

At the bottom of the policy list, with total opposition exceeding total support are the following proposals:

• “Ban immigration to the U.S. from Muslim-majority countries.” (-2 percent net support)

• “Cut off aid to Ukraine.” (-7 percent net support)

• “Require auto companies to sell more electric vehicles after 2030.” (-9 percent net support)

• “Break up the Department of Education.” (-9 percent net support)

• “Fire tens of thousands of FBI agents, national security and intelligence personnel, and other civil service employees.” (-23 percent net support)

Proposals for addressing crime and restricting immigration from both candidates also perform quite well with voters including: “Use existing presidential powers to stop illegal migrant crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border,” (+53 percent net support); “Increase funding for police and strengthen criminal penalties for assaulting cops,” (+52 percent net support); “Deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing gang members and criminals living illegally in the United States,” (+45 percent net support); and “Restrict the ability of migrants who illegally cross the U.S.-Mexico border to seek asylum” (+39 percent net support).