10 Things to Watch in U.S. Politics in 2025
As the country turns the page on Joe Biden’s presidency and prepares for the second coming of Donald Trump, there is plenty to ponder about the year ahead in American politics, spanning Trump and his party to the Democrats to the hot election takes of a couple months ago. To help our readers navigate this turbulent landscape, we wanted to offer a handful of storylines we’ll be watching as the year goes on and questions to which we’ll be seeking answers.
The length of Trump’s honeymoon. As he embarks on a second term, Trump is more popular on net this time around. When he was elected in 2016, just 38 percent of voters have a favorable view of him compared 60 percent who had an unfavorable view. In the 2024 election, however, those figures were 46 percent and 53 percent, respectively, and FiveThirtyEight’s rolling average shows them at virtually the same level today: a -0.3 net favorable rating. But it remains to be seen whether Trump can retain or even improve on his current positioning. Though his approval rating in January 2017 was above water—45.5 percent approved versus 41.3 percent who disapproved—it took just 15 days for that to invert, after which his disapproval rating remained higher for the rest of his time in office. Will the same happen this time, too? Or have voters given Trump a longer leash?
Trump’s overreach. During the 2024 campaign, Trump went to great lengths to distance himself from the less popular positions associated with the Republican Party, including stressing that he would veto a federal abortion ban and keeping the highly controversial Project 2025 at arm’s length.1 However, there are already indications Trump may be backtracking on some of that. For instance, he has given architects of Project 2025 high-ranking positions in his administration, despite his transition team leader saying before the election that the project had “no connection” to the campaign and that the people associated with it had “made themselves nuclear.” Moreover, Trump is also facing some early resistance from voters on other key campaign promises, including tariffs (voters oppose them against China, Canada, and Mexico by a margin of 51–38 percent) and immigration (Americans oppose deportations if they will restart family separations by a margin of 57–38 percent). Whether Trump goes too far for the majority of Americans on these and similar questions is likely to inform the answer to Question 1 as well.
The response to any Trump overreach. After Trump was elected the first time, it didn’t take long for his opposition to organize. Mass demonstrations rocked the United States even before he assumed office and continued into his presidency, especially as he made decisions that many viewed as overreaching such as his ban on travel from select Muslim-majority countries. But there are signs that the “resistance” to him may be waning. The certification of Trump’s victory was a fairly mum affair, with few hints of organized opposition. It’s unclear whether this portends permanent disillusion or calm before a resurgence (perhaps hastened by Trump’s actions in office). If a backlash does occur, though, it could take several forms: voters souring on his job performance, blue states moving left on policy, or cultural institutions pushing for a Great Awokening, Part 2. The question is, will it come? And if so, will it be as strong as the last time? (And will there be a backlash to the backlash, as there was after 2020?)
Democrats’ performance in special elections. It has become widely accepted knowledge that the shifting of the two parties’ coalitions during the Trump era has brought more highly educated, high-propensity voters into the Democratic coalition, which has correspondingly led the party to have greater success in lower-turnout, off-year elections. Since 2016, Democrats have overperformed their baseline during every two-year election cycle.2 It’s therefore a near-certainty that the party will experience some success in elections this year. The more interesting data point will be about the extent of their success—i.e., whether or not they match (or even do better than) past performance. If they are in the ballpark of that 2017–2018 showing, it could be a sign they are regaining ground with voters they lost last year. But if it’s more akin to the 2020 (D+4), 2022 (D+0.5), or 2024 (D+5) cycles, we may once again be left to wonder whether they’ve truly figured what ails them.
Trump’s lame-duck status. An understated fact about American politics right now is that Trump cannot run for election again. Though this obviously has implications for who might succeed him (more on that in a bit), it also matters right now. Second-term presidents are considered “lame ducks” because they are term-limited, and they don’t typically carry the same level of influence as they did in their first term and often have different priorities than (and less political capital with) members of Congress. Still, Trump has had an unusually strong grip on his party, and congressional Republicans have only grown more pro-Trump since he was first elected. It will be worth watching to see whether they are more willing to defy him in a second term. There have already been some signs that they won’t indulge his every request, such as his attempt to appoint Matt Gaetz attorney general. But they also relented and gave him the House Speaker he wanted. Will either of these episodes prove to be the start of a trend over the next four years?
The future of key election issues. Among the top issues in the 2024 election were inflation and immigration, and Trump had an edge over Harris on both. Now that the election is over, Americans will be watching how each of them develops under his government. Voters soured early on Biden’s handling of the economy and yearned for the pre-pandemic economy under Trump that boasted both low unemployment and low inflation. As Trump comes into office, he’ll be handed an economy that is in pretty good shape. However, there is some concern among economists and others that his proposed tariffs could risk the progress made on that front (and, in fact, Trump appears to have already scaled back some of them). If that happens, will voters turn on him, or will they cut him more slack given his high trust on the issue? Then, there’s the immigration issue. Voters have high hopes for how Trump will handle this, with fully 68 percent saying they believe he will get immigration under control. But again, many also say they do not want a return to some of his first-term policies like family separations. Looking ahead, how far is Trump willing to go to crack down on immigration? Will he pursue sweeping policies like mass deportations, and does this disrupt American life more than people expect? Is there a line beyond which voters will punish him for going too far?
The durability of post-election narratives. Months after Election Day, once early narratives have often become conventional wisdom, analysis based on more robust data using state voter files is made available to the public. These products from Catalist, Pew, and the Census Bureau help us better understand who exactly voted and how they voted, offering a superior alternative to the imperfect exit polls. Occasionally, these analyses turn early narratives on their head, as they did in 2016. At the moment, debates abound about why Democrats lost to Trump for a second time, and we’ll get a clearer picture once we have better data.
Trump’ cognitive decline and diminished physical stamina. Here’s a fun fact about the 2024 election: at 78 years old, Trump is now the oldest person ever to win the presidency, passing Biden, who was 77 when he won in 2020. This fact, while covered by some in the media, seemed to register as a lesser concern with voters, likely due to the more visible (and culturally present) fact of the incumbent president’s physical frailty and cognitive decline. But Trump has shown plenty of signs of aging as well. Were these minor blips from an otherwise healthy near-octogenarian or a sign of things to come? If the latter, does it become as big a problem for him as it was for Biden?
Jockeying for 2028. The dust had barely settled on the 2024 election when the earliest 2028 speculation began. Democrats are understandably eager to look ahead, and many Republicans are likely starting to do the same as well. On the Democratic side, the biggest questions right now are about the direction the party will move following this election: will they tack to the center, double down on progressive politics, or do something else entirely? (More on this below.) The dynamics of an early Republican field may be just as interesting. Given Trump’s lame-duck status, how soon will other Republicans wait to start their own jockeying? If they do so too soon or without Trump’s blessing (does anyone think he won’t want to put his imprint on the process to choose his successor?) will there be political repercussions from Trump or anyone else?
Democrats’ lessons from 2024. As regular readers of this publication will know, the Democrats face structural problems that long precede the 2024 election. While they were for decades the party that championed America’s middle and working classes, they increasingly look like—and represent the attitudes of—the upper class. Now, following their second loss to Trump, the party is at a crossroads. Many seem to acknowledge, even if begrudgingly, their glaring image problem. But there is significant disagreement on how to reckon with it and move forward. There should be early signs this year about the direction the party will take, including the selection of new DNC chair, any autopsy the national party conducts (and the conclusions they draw), the message they decide to move forward with, and the candidates they work to recruit for upcoming elections. All this will help us better deduce: do the Democrats know why they lost?
Kamala Harris was notably reluctant to do the same.
For example, from 2017–2018, the average swing in special elections was a massive 11 points toward Democrats.
I remain disappointed that none of the writers for this substack will touch the big C word.
Covid. You can't understand what happened in terms of the loss of trust for institutions and the big media without looking at the pandemic narrative. Remember when the lab leak was a racist conspiracy theory? I do. What about the wonderful warp speed vaccine that turned out not to work - but is still being forced on people.
Covid was not the only thing that undermined trust. The HunterBiden laptop, the Russian interference story, these also were dramas which made many Americans, like me, stop trusting the big media outlets. You need to talk about this. Propaganda. Censorship.
The economy, at the turn of the year, is in good shape only in media narrative and flawed government statistics. Here on the ground, it is in bad shape. People will vote their own lived experience not media narrative. We are all about 20% underwater on inflation even by understated government numbers. Those numbers will probably never go down again but stopping the War on Energy will also help to stop the bleeding. New jobs are either in government or government adjacent industries or low paid service jobs. Neither are especially useful to the working class. And lockdown induced shortages have never really gone away, at least where I live. They just skip randomly from product to product. And there are new ones like the bird flu induced egg problem. The supermarket has stopped posting prices. If you have to ask, it's too much.